STATEMENT THE PROBLEM OF SIMULATION OF DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES IN COMPLEX ORGANIZATIONAL-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

摘要

The article considers the features of organizational - technical systems (SOTS), belonging to the class of complex. SOTS may include robotic complexes, automated production, electronic sys-tems and devices used to transmit and convert information, etc. In the modern sense, SOTS are information and technical systems and are currently not only technical objects, they can also be classified as cyberphysical systems (CPS). The effectiveness of SOTS can be determined by many criteria, which should vary in content and time depending on the goals, stage of the existence of SOTS, the influence of internal and external environment. This determines the specificity of mana-gerial decision-making processes in them, requiring preliminary simulation modeling, especially at the design stages of these systems. The general formulation of the simulation problem is given, based on the combination of three approaches to the solution: cognitive, multi-criteria and multi-stage, probabilistic uncertainty. Which are combined into a single complex. Models of a multi-stage decision-making process, a probabilistic model problem of the nominal optimum and cogni-tive modeling of complex systems are proposed A demo example is presented, consisting of the development of a cognitive map of conditional SOTS, functioning in the presence of threats, modeling of functioning scenarios on a cognitive map with hypothetical changes in control and dis-turbing influences on the system. It is shown that at certain stages of decision-making with varia-tions of criteria-based assessments and control actions, it is possible to suppress threats to the system, as well as increase its effectiveness. Simulation was performed using the author's software system CMLS. The developed mathematical and software are designed for intelligent control sys-tems for the rational behavior of complex objects.