Mathematical Models and Methods of System Engineering for Preventive Risks Control in Real Time

Abstract

The probabilistic models and methods for solving problems of risks prediction and rationale counteraction measures in application to complex structures are proposed. The software support of these models and methods allows to solve different system engineering problems on stages of concept, design and operation. The capabilities of the proposed models and methods are analyzed in applications to solving the problem 1 of estimation and rationale the control measures for system operation on the base of monitored data about events and conditions, and the problem 2 of a robot actions optimization under limitations on admissible risks of "failures". The practical examples demonstrate summary from solving problem 1 for information systems operation (according to admissible probabilities of "success" and risks of "unsuccess"), the system analysis implementation to improve capabilities for an intelligent manufacturing (for a coal company), applicability of the proposed probabilistic methods and models to solving problem 2 in application to pilotless car route optimization in conditions of uncertainties.