Analysis of Concepts for Large-Scale Robotic Lunar Precursor Missions

摘要

Two concepts for large-scale, complex, robotic missions to search for frozen water at the lunar South Pole are systematically analyzed to determine their relative productivity and investment requirements. The Strategic Assessment of Risk and Technology (START) methodology and tool are utilized to determine temporal R&D-investment recommendations to optimize mission performance goals subject to budget, workforce, and other non-technical constraints. Explicit distinction is made between enabling and enhancing technologies. Uncertainties and dependencies are included within the optimization framework. This study determined that given the constraints used in this analysis, the longer mission would return 12 times the value of the shorter mission for roughly an 11% increase in cost, and would be enabled with the recommended temporal technology portfolio.