On the Data-Driven Modeling of Price-Responsive Flexible Loads: Formulation and Algorithm

摘要

The flexible loads in power systems, such as interruptible and transferable loads, are critical flexibility resources for mitigating power imbalances. Despite their potential, accurate modeling of these loads is a challenging work and has not received enough attention, limiting their integration into operational frameworks. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a data-driven identification theory and algorithm for price-responsive flexible loads (PRFLs). First, we introduce PRFL models that capture both static and dynamic decision mechanisms governing their response to electricity price variations. Second, We develop a data-driven identification framework that explicitly incorporates forecast and measurement errors. Particularly, we give a theoretical analysis to quantify the statistical impact of such noise on parameter estimation. Third, leveraging the bilevel structure of the identification problem, we propose a Bayesian optimization-based algorithm that features the scalability to large sample sizes and the ability to offer posterior differentiability certificates as byproducts. Numerical tests demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach.