It's Not a Big Sky After All: Justification for a Close Approach Prediction and Risk Assessment Process

Abstract

There is often skepticism about the need for Conjunction Assessment from mission operators that invest in the big sky theory, which states that the likelihood of a collision is so small that it can be neglected. On 10 February 2009, the collision between Iridium 3; and Cosmos 2251 provided an indication that this theory is invalid and that a CA process should be considered for all missions. This paper presents statistics of the effect of the Iridium/Cosmos collision on NASA's Earth Science Constellation as well as results of analyses which characterize the debris environment for NASA's robotic missions.