Economic Analysis of a ROXY Pilot Plant Supporting Early Lunar Mission Architectures

摘要

The establishment of a sustained human presence on the Moon is critically dependent on the ability to utilize local resources, primarily the production of oxygen for life support and propellant. The ROXY (Regolith to Oxygen and metals conversion) process is a molten salt electrolysis technology designed for this purpose. This paper presents an economic analysis of a ROXY pilot plant capable of producing over one ton of oxygen per year. We evaluate the economic viability by analyzing development, transportation, and operational costs against the potential revenue from selling oxygen and metals within a nascent lunar economy. A key aspect of this analysis is the perspective of an early customer in habitation life support systems preceding that of much higher propellant production demand. The analysis contextualizes this paradigm by recognizing that the primary economic driver for oxygen production is the larger future market for propellant; however, early life support demand may incentivize a paradigm-shift from Earth-based consumable resupply. Scenarios based on varying transportation costs and development timelines are evaluated to determine the internal rate of return (IRR) and time to break even (TTBE). The results indicate that the ROXY pilot plant is economically viable, particularly in near-term scenarios with higher transportation costs, achieving a positive IRR of up to 47.4% when both oxygen and metals are sold. The analysis identifies facility mass, driven by the robotics subsystem, as the primary factor for future cost-reduction efforts, concluding that ROXY is a technically and economically sound pathway toward sustainable lunar operations.