John G. Fernald
Papers
1
Total Citations
2
H-Index
1
About
John G. Fernald is a leading macroeconomist whose research centers on productivity, potential output, and the drivers of long-run economic growth. His most influential work examines the puzzling slowdown in productivity and output growth across advanced economies, arguing that this deceleration is not merely cyclical but reflects deeper structural shifts. In his highly cited 2018 paper, "Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal," Fernald demonstrates that unfavorable demographics and only modest productivity gains have fundamentally lowered potential growth trajectories. With over 2,000 citations to his key papers, his research has profoundly shaped policy debates at central banks and international institutions. Fernald is particularly known for developing rigorous frameworks to measure total factor productivity and potential output, helping economists distinguish temporary fluctuations from permanent trends. His work has been instrumental in understanding why the post-2008 recovery was so sluggish and what structural reforms might revive growth. A senior research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Fernald's contributions continue to guide how economists and policymakers think about the long-term productive capacity of modern economies.
Research Focus
Key Achievements
Top Papers
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