Optimization of Multi-Mission Space Exploration Campaign Schedules Subject to Stochastic Launch Delay

Abstract

Future plans for deep-space exploration campaigns, targeting locations such as the Moon and Mars, feature a multitude of interdependent missions. For example, a crewed mission may require robotic pre-cursor scouting missions, or supporting cargo delivery missions. As campaign complexity and mission inter-dependency increases, the potential knock-on effects and costs of launch delays also increase. Understanding the potential impacts of delays is an important part of architecture trade-offs in the early definition phase of a project, but quantifying those impacts for a large number of potential architecture solutions is difficult. This work aims to solve this issue by producing a method to both quantify the impact of launch delay and compare possible campaign launch schedules, in order to find robust and near-optimal solutions, by measuring the expected value of the optimization objective and expected probability of infeasibility due to the launch uncertainty. The method is applied specifically to potential lunar exploration architectures in a case study.