PROTOCOL: Adult skills development and training in high‐income countries: A Campbell evidence and gap map

Abstract

Human capital is a chief driving force of economic development. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated that approximately 9% of current jobs within OECD member states are threatened with automation and digitalization—all significant successes and advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, and computer science (Arntz et al., 2016). With such global changes and forecasts, in the labor market, there are ever-evolving demands on employees and employers to gain or update new and/or different skill sets and competencies. Governments and policy-makers at various levels have shifted towards investments and surveillance of various types of job training and skills acquisitions (OECD, 2009). Active labor market programs help to bring individuals into employment, keep workers employed, optimize productivity and earnings through various means (Brown & Koettl, 2012). Further to the threat of automation and digitalization, international organizations are monitoring and estimating labor market trends considering COVID-19 and its impact on the various economies worldwide. As of September 22nd, 2020, there have been over 31 million cases and over 960,000 deaths associated with COVID-19 (John Hopkins University, 2020) with numbers still increasing daily. The consequences of this pandemic will include a significant disruption and impact on global unemployment and underemployment rates, implications for the quality of work available with reduced income, and working poverty, and worsening social inequalities and inequities as less access to social protection may also impact the quality of work done by employees (International Labor Organization, 2020). Furthermore, these critical implications can contribute to a global economic recession (UN Conference for Trade and Development, 2020). COVID-19 has led to increased demand for some occupations and shortage in specific skills as well as social displacement of workers, for example, some staff have been redeployed to new posts and newly trained healthcare professionals were introduced earlier than expected into needed posts (such as screening for COVID-19). Evidence on effects of labor market programs to reduce unemployment from previous economic crises may be applicable to the COVID-19 recovery plan. A key challenge will be to reduce unemployment by skills development and training, whether through upskilling to remain acquainted with and ensure skills match present labor market needs, or reskilling. The UN suggests that skills development programs may be a part of a policy response to COVID-19. Skills development and training is important by virtue of the outcomes they can produce at both the system, employer, and individual levels. Different interventions involving formal education, informal training, and other learning activities can contribute to technical and soft adult skills development necessary in the labor market. The types of interventions include career support, pathway guidance, assessment, funding, wraparound support (e.g., childcare, coaching), accreditation, training delivery (in-person, digital, practitioner-led training, by public or private providers; Orlik, 2018). These interventions are often provided in various combinations and may be geared toward paid employment or self-employment. They can lead to an impact at the participant level (e.g., skills, employment and retention, earnings), and at the level of the employer (e.g., retention, hire quality) and the system (e.g., diversity of workforce/equity, community well-being). Although many programs have a positive impact on participants, employers and labor market systems, some negative impacts such as reduced wages and displacement have occurred as a result of imbalance in labor demand and supply (Brown & Koettl, 2012; Crépon et al., 2013). See the conceptual framework of interventions and outcomes we developed in consultation with stakeholders who have expertise in skills development and po