Evolution Not Revolution: Defence AI in Australia

Abstract

Abstract Middle power Australia has an active defence Artificial Intelligence (AI) program underway with a well-defined innovation pathway and numerous experimentation projects. The Australian Defence Force sees AI mainly being used in human–machine teams to improve efficiency, increase combat power, achieve decision superiority, and lower risks to combat personnel. The major equipment acquisition plan for the next two decades sets out six AI-relevant projects: one navy, one army, three air force and one in the information and cyber domain. Associated with this investment is a high expectation that Australian AI companies will have considerable involvement in the projects. The Australian defence AI sector, though, consists mainly of small and medium-sized companies that may need to partner with large prime contractors to achieve the requisite industrial heft. There are also wider national concerns about whether Australia will have a large enough AI workforce over the next decade to handle both commercial and defence demands. Accordingly, Australia is involved with collaborative AI developments with the United States including the “loyal wingman” fast jet drone, autonomous submarines and surface vessels, and robot land vehicles. Current defence AI plans will most likely lead to evolutionary improvements not revolutionary changes. AI is envisaged as being used to either enhance, augment, or replace existing capability. This approach means the future ADF will do things better, but it won’t necessarily be able to do better things.