Analyzing the Factors Influencing the Waiting Time to First Citation and Long-Term Impact of Publications

Abstract

Although citation-based indicators are widely used for impact assessment, time to get the first citation could also be an early indicator of scientific performance. This study examined how factors like number of authors and international collaboration are related to the waiting time (WT) of receiving the first citation. The study further investigates how WT and early citation (EC) could be used as an important indicator for the prediction of long-term scientific impact. For the purpose, we used Web of Science database to collect citation data of the publications from 2008 to 2017 in Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) related research fields. For analysis, we used the bibliometric method to examine the number of cited and uncited publications and to find out publication’s frequency distribution as per the waiting period. Further, correlation and regression analysis are performed to check the relationship among variables. The analysis results state that collaboration improves citation speed by reducing WT. Moreover, the result shows that publications which receive their first citation early have more chances to attract future citations.