Function Embeddings for Multi-modal Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Tractable Bayesian inference is a fundamental challenge in robotics and machine learning. Standard approaches such as Gaussian process regression and Kalman filtering make strong Gaussianity assumptions about the underlying distributions. Such assumptions, however, can quickly break down when dealing with complex systems such as the dynamics of a robot or multi-variate spatial models. In this thesis we aim to solve Bayesian regression and filtering problems without making assumptions about the underlying distributions. We develop techniques to produce rich posterior representations for complex, multi-modal phenomena. Our work extends kernel Bayes' rule (KBR), which uses empirical estimates of distributions derived from a set of training samples and embeds them into a high-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Bayes' rule itself occurs on elements of this space. Our first contribution is the development of an efficient method for estimating posterior density functions from kernel Bayes' rule, applied to both filtering and regression. By embedding fixed-mean mixtures of component distributions, we can efficiently find an approximate pre-image by optimising the mixture weights using a convex quadratic program. The result is a complex, multi-modal posterior representation. Our next contributions are methods for estimating cumulative distributions and quantile estimates from the posterior embedding of kernel Bayes' rule. We examine a number of novel methods, including those based on our density estimation techniques, as well as directly estimating the cumulative through use of the reproducing property of RKHSs. Finally, we develop a novel method for scaling kernel Bayes' rule inference to large datasets, using a reduced-set construction optimised using the posterior likelihood. This method retains the ability to perform multi-output inference, as well as our earlier contributions to represent explicitly non-Gaussian posteriors and quantile estimates.