A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

Abstract

This is the eighth such annual horizon scan. An international team with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy identified 15 issues, following widespread consultation and a Delphi-like scoring process to identify the most important. The issues were wide ranging, and include sand extraction, blockchain technology, use of robotics to combat invasive species, and new developments in energy storage and fuel production. We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology. We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology. We have conducted an annual horizon scan of global conservation issues since 2010 with the aim of highlighting, by consensus, emerging topics that are not yet widely known in the conservation community but could have substantial effects on biological diversity worldwide in the medium to long term. Our iterative, transferable process of horizon scanning, which is designed to be both transparent and democratic, is carried out by a team with a wide range of experiences and areas of expertise. Our aim has been to focus attention and stimulate debate about these subjects, potentially leading to new research foci, policy developments, or business innovations. These responses should help to facilitate better-informed forward-planning. It is difficult to gauge the direct effects of our horizon scans on the research, policy, or business communities, except through personal communication and hearsay. However, several topics recognized in our previous horizon scans received international attention during 2016. For example, we identified microplastics as an emerging issue in 2010 [1Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010; 25: 1-7Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (304) Google Scholar]. There is now substantial action on this issue internationally, with several governments, including those of the USA and the UK, introducing legislative bans on microbeads in cosmetics and detergents, and many cosmetics companies voluntarily committing to halt their use of microplastics by 2020 [2Rochman C.M. et al.Scientific evidence supports a ban on microbeads.Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015; 49: 10759-10761Crossref PubMed Scopus (246) Google Scholar, 3Environmental Audit CommitteeEnvironmental Impact of Microplastics. Fourth Report of Session, 2016-2017. House of Commons Enviro