Technology, Transaction Costs and Economic Foresight. Developing Tendency-Based Scenarios

摘要

Combining historical economic data and positivistic, standard neoclassical economic theories does not give a sufficient nuanced view on different economic futures that address the future inherent uncertainty. Economic history does not repeat itself making economic systems ‘open systems’, and economic laws cannot be regarded as laws in the natural sciences. Therefore, we explore a different approach by taking critical realism as science-philosophical background, using transaction cost theory to cope with the unrealistic full rationality postulate of neoclassical economic theory. In particular, we use the scenario-method from the management sciences and use as the concept of ‘tendencies’, as developed within critical realism, as scenario-framework. To illustrate our approach we use the case of Sense Glove, a light, compact, and modular robotic hand shoe that was originally developed for cost-effective rehabilitation of hand paralysis, but which is now used to get a real sense of feeling objects in virtual and artificial reality.