Setting speed-limit on Industry 4.0 – an outlook of power-mix and grid capacity challenge

摘要

As we are approaching critical tipping point in greenhouse emissions, aligning the overall structure of energy sector will require major shift in both the approach and production portfolio. At the same time the Industry 4.0 transformation is gaining speed and its core technologies are developing in ever-increasing paste. The accelerated developments, especially in the domain of Artificial intelligence and industrial robotics, are already visible. Coupled with the energy demand in transportation sector, especially the electric vehicles impact on production patters and grid-balancing, the long-term energy production disbalance will create unprecedented challenges for ever-growing electricity needs. The environment friendly production and distribution of needed electricity is one the main ones. The Industry 4.0 changing demand will create excessive pressure on companies and governments to rethink their long-term production strategies. For most, this will be a paradigm shift in overall sectoral approach. Although, the wind and solar will be the two dominating renewable energy technologies in the upcoming decades, the “integration costs” of wind and solar energy: grid costs, balancing costs and cost effects on conventional power plants – varies tremendously depending on the specific power system. The daunting task of transformation and alignment of existing transmission grid, coupled with the need to build new grid capacity beyond 2020, are estimated to nearly double today’s capacity just to facilitate today envisaged industrial automation and electric vehicles developments only. By all accounts, the majority of European countries are facing an unprecedented challenges in its electricity production portfolio. It’s not only the nature of production or the power mix that is in question, but also balance-load, merit order principal as well as monumental challenge of new grid requirements. In this overview we provide an outlook at energy trends in EU by 2050, coupled with electric vehicles and core Industry 4.0 technologies impact on electricity demand, power-mix and grid capacity challenge.