Modeling the Epidemic Trend of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in China

摘要

A new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with infection by a novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally since December 2019. By 22 September 2020, more than 200 countries worldwide have reported about 30 million confirmed cases and more than 950,000 deaths.1World Health OrganizationCoronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports.https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/Google Scholar China has reported a total of 85,307 (including 2,758 imported) cases and 4,634 deaths.2National Health Commission of ChinaDaily report of COVID-19.http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xxgzbd/gzbd_index.shtmlGoogle Scholar To control the dispersal of COVID-19, the Chinese government initiated an unprecedented lockdown in Hubei province and raised a national public health response to the highest state of emergency: level 1 of 4 levels of severity in the Chinese Emergency System on 23 January 2020. People were encouraged to stay at home as much as possible, and all public events and gatherings were canceled or delayed, which significantly reduced social contacts in public spaces (e.g., public transportation, supermarkets, offices, etc.) but increased person-to-person contacts in households.3Zhang J., Litvinova M., Liang Y., et al. Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science. 368, 6498:1481-1486.Google Scholar At the same time, the usage rate of face masks was high in public spaces (consistently >90% during the time of lockdown4Liebao K. Mobile robot data: the face mask useage rate reached 97.6% in Wuhan city during the epidemic.http://m.kejixun.com/article/200224/488396.shtmlGoogle Scholar). The duration for detection and diagnosis of infected individuals was shortened, and consequently diagnosed individuals and those who were in close contact with them could be isolated in a timely manner.5World Health OrganizationReport of the WHO-China Joint Mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdfGoogle Scholar With strict social distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions, China has contained the spread of COVID-19 and reopened its economy since early April. The successful experiences in China will provide important evidence and scientific insights for other countries that are amid the pandemic. Based on a dynamic compartmental model, this study aims to quantify the impact of social distancing on the transmission of COVID-19 in China in the presence of high coverage of face mask use. We collected data on the number of cumulative confirmed cases (except imported cases) and deaths from 15 January 2020 to 30 August 2020 from the National Health Commission2National Health Commission of ChinaDaily report of COVID-19.http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xxgzbd/gzbd_index.shtmlGoogle Scholar and Health Commission of Hubei Province.6Health Commission of Hubei ProvinceDaily report of COVID-19.http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/Google Scholar We used a published compartmental model7Shen M. Peng Z. Guo Y. et al.Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households.Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020; 96: 503-505Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (68) Google Scholar to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and all other affected provinces except Hubei (Outside Hubei) separately. The model took into consideration of both transmissions in public spaces and households. The face mask usage rate was chosen as 97.6%4Liebao K. Mobile robot data: the face mask useage rate reached 97.6% in Wuhan city during the epidemic.http://m.kejixun.com/article/200224/488396.shtmlGoogle Scholar with 85% effectiveness8Chu D.K. Akl E.A. Duda S. et al.Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and m