Reversing the Elite Brain Drain: A First Step to Address Europe's Skills Shortage

摘要

Since the end of the World War II, Europe has been repeatedly afflicted by waves of brain drain, with varying degrees of intensity across time and countries. But these outflows of human capital have rarely turned into some form of brain circulation, nor have they been compensated by adequate inflows of foreign talents. Now, the Digital Revolution and the economic restructuring imposed by a never-ending Eurozone crisis are amplifying the costs of these human capital losses, creating skills shortages that are undermining Europe's ability to compete globally. So far, the European Commission (EC) has taken steps to loosen immigration policies to attract skilled foreigners from across the world. A thorough historical analysis, however, will show that it is high time for European governments to reattract their runaways. Policies aiming at remigration, rather than immigration, will generate greater political and economic efficiency. (1) ********** In a world of blurring national borders and growing demand for sophisticated skills, governments struggle to retain their brightest minds. When institutional deficiencies, technological inertia, or political cronyism prevent people from realizing their full potential, no country--even the most developed--is immune to the outflow of its best talents. In this sense, Europe is a case in point. For more than half a century, bright academics, ambitious entrepreneurs, and visionary scientists have defeated the conservatism of Europe by crossing the Atlantic Ocean in search of vibrant university environments and rewarding professional opportunities. These emigrants are not only Europe's most skilled workers but, according to several metrics, also the most gifted in their respective fields globally, with their quality--expressed in terms of educational and professional backgrounds--having significantly increased over time. In short, this is the brain drain of creme de la creme. (2) To make matters worse, Europe's outflows of human capital have rarely been compensated by adequate inflows of equally skilled foreign talents from either developed or developing economies. An inward-looking, innovation-averse Europe is not the ideal place for gifted foreigners who are willing to bear the cost of emigration. The number of skilled American workers who decide to move to Europe is much lower than the number of Europeans who are now part of the U.S. workforce. (3) At the same time, the most skilled professionals from the developing world, such as scientists, engineers, and academic researchers, tend to look to the United States as their second home. (4) Now, the Digital Revolution and the economic restructuring imposed by the Eurozone crisis are amplifying the costs of these human capital losses by boosting the demand for those very same skills that are usually possessed by European emigrants. On the one hand, the proliferation of digital startups and the emergence of disruptive technologies, such as advanced robotics or machine intelligence, are radically reshaping the business landscape. On the other hand, the bursting of bubbles in oversized real estate sectors and a general lack of competitiveness in the Eurozone periphery call for a radical economic overhaul. These two sets of transformative forces together create skill mismatches that generate high social costs, such as long-term unemployment for displaced workers in declining sectors who are unlikely to find jobs in emerging fields. Growing skills shortages are already plaguing the European economy. Despite an extremely underutilized labor force, around 27 percent of yearly vacancies in the major European economies go unfilled due to skill mismatches. (5) The Skills Mismatch Index (SMI) for the Eurozone as a whole--an indicator commonly used by the EC and the European Central Bank to gauge skills shortages--is now five times higher than in 2007. (6) Contrary to conventional wisdom, the skills mismatch affects both skilled and unskilled workers, indicat