The Rise of the Robots

摘要

This chapter examines the history of alarm over machines displacing workers, from the Luddite revolts to the 1964 Triple Revolution Report, highlighting how past predictions repeatedly proved false. It highlights how the post-World War II era demonstrates synergy between technological progress and rising wages, as productivity gains fueled middle-class expansion. The chapter emphasizes that modern information technology, driven by exponential advances like Moore’s Law, threatens both routine and knowledge-based jobs by enabling machines and artificial intelligence to perform human tasks. It outlines economic trends: soaring productivity with stagnant compensation, a declining labor share, job polarization, falling participation, rising disability claims, and prolonged jobless recoveries, illustrating technology’s pervasive impact. Finally, the chapter argues that advancing technology alone provides the most coherent explanation for these converging trends.