Robust methodologies for modeling web click distributions

摘要

Metrics such as click counts are vital to online businesses but their measurement has been problematic due to inclusion of high variance robot traffic. We posit that by applying statistical methods more rigorous than have been employed to date that we can build a robust model of thedistribution of clicks following which we can set probabilistically sound thresholds to address outliers and robots. Prior research in this domain has used inappropriate statistical methodology to model distributions and current industrial practice eschews this research for conservative ad-hoc click-level thresholds. Prevailing belief is that such distributions are scale-free power law distributions but using more rigorous statistical methods we find the best description of the data is instead provided by a scale-sensitive Zipf-Mandelbrot mixture distribution. Our results are based on ten data sets from various verticals in the Yahoo domain. Since mixture models can overfit the data we take care to use the BIC log-likelihood method which penalizes overly complex models. Using a mixture model in the web activity domain makes sense because there are likely multiple classes of users. In particular, we have noticed that there is a significantly large set of "users" that visit the Yahoo portal exactly once a day. We surmise these may be robots testing internet connectivity by pinging the Yahoo main website.